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  • Trends and latest findings

    The fuel excise tax gap is estimated to be $239 million in 2017–18 or 1.3% of total theoretical tax. Over the period 2012–13 to 2017–18, the estimated net fuel excise tax gap ranges from 1.0% to 2.5%.

    In recent years, the gap has been on an overall downward trend. In 2012–13 the gap was 2.5% of the total value of the excise and duty, before the most recent trough of 1.0% in 2014–15. The gap rebounded slightly to 1.9% in 2015–16, before reducing again to 1.3% in 2017–18.

    Note that amounts reported in this estimate are rounded to the nearest $ million.

    Table 1 shows the excise and duty reported, compliance activity adjustments and the gross and net fuel excise gap estimates for the period 2012–13 to 2017–18.

    Table 1: Fuel excise tax gap, 2012–13 to 2017–18

    Element

    2012–13

    2013–14

    2014–15

    2015–16

    2016–17

    2017–18

    Gross gap
    ($m)

    421

    359

    171

    329

    331

    241

    Amendments
    ($m)

    5

    9

    3

    4

    1

    2

    Net gap
    ($m)

    416

    350

    168

    325

    330

    239

    Excise and duty reported
    ($m)

    16,223

    16,369

    16,659

    16,887

    17,415

    18,455

    Theoretical liability
    ($m)

    16,644

    16,728

    16,830

    17,216

    17,747

    18,696

    Gross gap
    (%)

    2.5

    2.1

    1.0

    1.9

    1.9

    1.3

    Net gap
    (%)

    2.5

    2.1

    1.0

    1.9

    1.9

    1.3

    Notes:
    Amounts and percentages may not reconcile due to rounding.
    Changes from previously published estimates are due to revisions to APS data, updated ATO data and a modified approach to determining liabilities reported but not paid.
     

    Figure 1 shows the trend in excise and duty reported and the net fuel excise gap over the same period.

    Figure 1: Amount reported and net fuel excise tax gap, 2012–13 to 2017–18

     This graph shows the amount of fuel excise reported and the net gap stated in Table 1 for the years 2012–13 to 2017–18

    Figure 2: Net fuel excise tax gap as a percentage of total theoretical liability, 2012–13 to 2017–18

     This graph is a pictorial representation of the net gap percentages stated in Table 1 for the years 2014–15 to 2017–18

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      Last modified: 17 Oct 2019QC 57193