The latest tax gap estimates are based on a new top-down model. It incorporates significant changes designed to improve the accuracy and reliability of the estimates. Independent external advice has endorsed these changes as significant improvements.
With this new model, accuracy and reliability have likely improved relative to recent years. As a result, we have increased the reliability rating to medium with a score of 18. It was previously low with a score of 15. The independent external experts support the increase in reliability ratings.
Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high – PAYG withholding gap