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  • Trends and latest findings

    The net gap for fuel excise is very small.

    The gap is estimated to be $330 million in 2016-17 or 1.9% of total theoretical tax. Over the period from 2011-12 to 2016-17, the estimated net fuel excise gap ranges from 0.6% to 2.5%.

    In recent years, the gap has been on an overall downward trend, albeit showing a rebound in 2015-16. In 2012-13, the gap was 2.5% of the total value of the excise and duty, before the most recent trough of 1.0% in 2014-15. In 2015-16, the gap had risen to 1.9%.

    While there has been no change to the methodology, updates to the underlying data have resulted in minor changes to previously published estimates. There are also some limitations in the methodology used to estimate the gap, which will introduce a margin of error.

    The following table shows the excise and duty reported, compliance activity adjustments and the gross and net fuel excise gap estimates for the period 2011-12 to 2016-17.

    Fuel excise gap ($ million) 2011-12 to 2016-17

    Gap

    2011-12
    ($'m)

    2012-13
    ($'m)

    2013-14
    ($'m)

    2014-15
    ($'m)

    2015-16
    ($'m)

    2016-17
    ($'m)

    Excise and duty reported

    16,006

    16,223

    16,369

    16,659

    16,887

    17,415

    Gross gap

    91

    421

    359

    171

    329

    331

    Adjustments

    0

    5

    9

    3

    4

    1

    Net gap

    91

    416

    350

    168

    325

    330

    Fuel excise gap (Percentage) 2011-12 to 2016-17

    Gap

    2011-12
    (%)

    2012-13
    (%)

    2013-14
    (%)

    2014-15
    (%)

    2015-16
    (%)

    2016-17
    (%)

    Gross Gap

    0.6

    2.5

    2.1

    1.0

    1.9

    1.9

    Net gap

    0.6

    2.5

    2.1

    1.0

    1.9

    1.9

     Note:

    • Amounts and percentages may not reconcile due to rounding.
    • Changes from previously published estimates are due to revisions to APS data, updated ATO data and a modified approach to determining liabilities reported but not paid.
    • Amounts are rounded to the nearest $1 million.
    • Zero results are rounded to $0 as a result of nearest $1 million rounding. Actual results are higher than zero.

    The graph below shows the trend in excise and duty reported and the net fuel excise gap over the same period.

    Amount reported and net gap – fuel excise 2011-12 to 2016-17

    This graph provides a visual representation of the trend of the fuel tax credits reported and the net fuel tax credits gap in dollar terms. This information is provided in the table listed earlier in this document.

    Fuel excise net gap as a percentage of total theoretical liability, 2011-12 to 2016-17

    This graph provides a visual representation of the trend of the gross fuel tax credits gap and net fuel tax credits gap as a percentage. This information is provided in the table listed earlier in this document.

      Last modified: 10 Jan 2020QC 61079