The analysis assumes the level of reporting non-compliance (around 1.2% from the 2007–08 random audit programs) still holds. Our benchmarking analysis and risk assessments since then suggest this is likely to be the case. However, the FTC regime has changed significantly since the random audit program occurred, and the added complexity may have resulted in higher non-compliance.
Not all diesel collections result in a fuel tax credits claim. In addition, not all claims relate to diesel purchases. From our internal data, we estimate 90% of claims relate to diesel fuel purchases by business.
To overcome these methodological problems, we will undertake a small-scale audit program in 2015–16 to accurately determine the FTC gap. This will be an update of the previous audit program in 2006–07.