For 2019–20, we estimate a net wine equalisation tax (WET) gap of 3.0% or $31.6 million. This means around 97% of the total theoretical tax liability was paid.
The WET net gap estimate has remained relatively stable since 2014–15. Meanwhile, WET gross gap estimates have shown a downward trend over the 6-year period. This suggests voluntary compliance has improved over time.
For 2019–20, the gross gap is 3.4%. From a tax collection perspective, this means that almost 97% of the tax we expect to receive is reported voluntarily.
The legislative changes in 2018–19 have significantly reduced WET refundable and increased net WET reported for the year. At the same time, voluntary payments rose. This has contributed to smaller gross gaps for 2018–19 onwards.
This year, we have changed our approach to how we estimate the WET gap, and we applied the new estimation methodology across all historical years to ensure comparability in the estimates.
Table 1 summarises the results from 2014–15 to 2019–20.
Element |
2014–15 |
2015–16 |
2016–17 |
2017–18 |
2018–19 |
2019–20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population (count) |
3,919 |
4,009 |
4,003 |
4,015 |
3,819 |
3,763 |
Gross gap ($m) |
34.6 |
34.0 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
35.9 |
35.9 |
Amendments ($m) |
9.0 |
6.4 |
9.4 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
Net gap ($m) |
25.6 |
27.6 |
24.9 |
32.5 |
32.0 |
31.6 |
Tax paid ($m) |
822 |
867 |
858 |
912 |
1,014 |
1,021 |
Theoretical liability ($m) |
848 |
895 |
882 |
944 |
1,046 |
1,053 |
Gross gap (%) |
4.1% |
3.8% |
3.9% |
3.8% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
Net gap (%) |
3.0% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
3.4% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
Figure 1: Gross and net WET gap percentages from 2014–15 to 2019–20