2023–24 alcohol tax gap estimate
For 2023–24, we estimate that 90.3% or $8.0 billion of the expected alcohol duty will be collected. This leaves a tax gap of 9.7%, or $861 million. An estimated $767 million or 89.1% of the unreported alcohol duty is because of illicit activity in the shadow economy.
Alcohol tax gap trends
The latest alcohol tax gap estimate is essentially unchanged from last year and continues to be the 9-10% range even with variation in market participation, duty rate increases, and an increase in the duty collected.
|
Element |
2018–19 |
2019–20 |
2020–21 |
2021–22 |
2022–23 |
2023–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Population |
8,058 |
10,349 |
12,288 |
11,949 |
11,397 |
8,198 |
|
Gross gap ($m) |
721 |
661 |
698 |
747 |
800 |
864 |
|
Amendments ($m) |
162 |
64 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Net gap ($m) |
558 |
598 |
696 |
745 |
798 |
861 |
|
Expected collections ($m) |
5,798 |
6,007 |
7,004 |
7,435 |
7,550 |
8,000 |
|
Theoretical liability ($m) |
6,356 |
6,604 |
7,700 |
8,180 |
8,348 |
8,861 |
|
Gross gap (%) |
11.3% |
10.0% |
9.1% |
9.1% |
9.6% |
9.8% |
|
Net gap (%) |
8.8% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
9.1% |
9.6% |
9.7% |
This data is presented in Figure 1 as follows.
Figure 1: Net tax gap (percentage) – Alcohol tax gap, 2018–19 to 2023–24
What's driving the gap
Our analysis finds the key driver of the alcohol tax gap is illicit alcohol activity.
There are a number of known illicit alcohol activities and arrangements that have been identified. These include:
- unauthorised manufacture and unpaid excise duty
- authorised manufacture with under-reported or unpaid excise duty
- product diversion
- cross-border transactions (smuggling or export diversion)
- deliberate fraud or evasion.
For previously published tax gap figures, see Australian Tax Gaps - Data.gov.auOpens in a new window