Tax gap advisory group
The tax gap program is supported by an independent, external advisory group.
The advisory group assists in the development of rigorous and robust methods for estimating tax gaps. Each tax gap is subject to continuous improvement based on feedback received by the advisory group, as well as global developments in tax gap methods and practices.
The tax gap advisory group was initially established with 3 members and has recently expanded to 5 members. Members of the advisory group can be contacted through the ATO's media unit.
Tax advisory group members
Current members of the tax advisory group follow.
Emeritus Professor Neil Warren
Neil Warren is Emeritus Professor of Taxation at the UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney. Neil is a respected economist with a research focus on taxation issues. He is a leader in his field of expertise and has been the recipient of numerous grants, organized many conferences, and consulted widely to federal and state government agencies, political parties and welfare and industry groups, as well as providing expert opinion to government inquiries and parliamentary committees. He has been a member of the ATO Tax Gap Advisory Group since 2013 and has independently researched and published on the issue of tax gap for over 2 decades.
Dr Maria Yanotti
Dr Maria B. Yanotti is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Tasmanian School of Business and Economics (TSBE), University of Tasmania. She is an applied economist specializing in housing markets, household and housing finance and mortgage markets, with econometric and statistical analysis skills for large databases. Her interdisciplinary work supports sustainable development goals and informs national housing and economic policy with an emphasis on regional development and applied economics. She has published in leading domestic and international journals and has led and contributed to numerous AHURI-funded projects and consultancies. She also contributes to several applied economics research projects. Maria serves as the Tasmanian Chair of the Women in Economics Network (WEN) and is an active member of the Economic Society of Australia (ESA) Tasmanian Branch. She was an Academic Member for the External Reference Group of National Housing Finance and Investment (NHFIC) Corporation, Australia (now Housing Australia).
Richard Highfield
Richard Highfield is a consultant in tax system design and administration and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree (Accounting major) from UNSW. His professional career includes 12 years (2003–2015) as Head of division and Senior Advisor with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris, 5 years (1997–2003) as a Senior Advisor with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington DC USA and Moscow, Russia; and over 25 years with the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) where he was a Second Commissioner of Taxation from 1993–1997. Since 2016, Richard's work has included assignments with the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and research projects with UNSW. His specific fields of expertise include comparative analysis of tax system design, administration, and performance; tax gap research methodologies; and compliance costs research. He has served as a member of the expert advisory panel guiding the ATO’s tax gap research program since 2013.
Dr Brian Erard
Brian Erard operates an economics consulting practice – B. Erard & Associates, LLC – in the US, where he specializes in the areas of tax compliance, enforcement and administration. Dr Erard has published extensively in academic journals and scholarly conference proceedings. He has consulted widely on the development of tax gap estimates, including in Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, Poland, UK, and the US. In addition to his membership on the ATO Tax Gap Advisory Group, he serves as a member of the IRS Tax Gap Expert Panel in the US. Prior to becoming a full-time consultant, Dr Erard spent a decade in academia serving as Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto, Associate Professor and Director of the joint economics PhD program at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa, and Visiting Scholar at the University of Michigan Office of Tax Policy Research.
Dr James Brown
Dr James Brown is Professor of Official Statistics and the current Head of Discipline for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS). Since joining UTS in 2013, he has also served as Associate Head of School (Research) for Mathematical and Physical Sciences. James received his BSc in Mathematics with Actuarial Studies (1993) and completed his MSc in Social Statistics (1996), both from the University of Southampton. He completed his PhD (University of Southampton, 2001) on census coverage assessment and adjustment, work which started 15 years of close collaboration with the Office for National Statistics in the UK. Prior to joining UTS in September 2013, he held positions as Lecturer and Senior Lecturer at the University of Southampton in Social Statistics; Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Education (University of London) in Quantitative methods; and Reader at the University of Southampton. He brings expertise in estimation and modelling to his work with the ATO.
International engagement
Australia is a member of the OECD Tax Gap Community of Interest and the Tax Gap Working Group. These groups allow OECD member countries to discuss and share their experiences in estimating tax gap and it allows jurisdictions to learn from the advancements of others.
The OECD published its Tax Administration 2024External Link: Comparative Information on OECD and other Advanced and Emerging Economies report. Chapter 11 of that report is an international comparison of tax gap programs. The report lists countries that have a team dedicated to the estimation of tax gap as well as a list of the small number of countries that publish their estimates externally. The report provides technical details of the types of methods uses globally to estimate tax gap.
Holistic view of the tax gap program
There are 3 main outcome principles to our tax gap program.
Our estimates need to be:
- reliable
- credible
- meaningful.
Each of these principles provides us with a framework (Figure 5) that is reflected through the whole program, including in the reliability assessments for each estimate.
Figure 5: Holistic view of the tax gap program
Reliable
For the 'reliable' principle, we assess ourselves against 2 outcomes – trustworthy and dependable.
For an outcome to be trustworthy, the outcome needs to be transparent, concise and open to evaluation. To achieve a dependable outcome, the estimate needs to use the best methods available given the data. The results from those methods need to be repeatable.
Credible
For the 'credible' principle, we assess ourselves against 2 outcomes – rational and complete.
For the credible principle, an outcome is believable when it explains why the gap is the size it is, and what the wider issues and impacts are. To be complete, the outcome needs to be as comprehensive as the data allows, including where applicable, estimating the impact of the shadow economy behaviours.
Meaningful
For the 'meaningful' principle, we assess ourselves against 2 outcomes – explained and communicated.
This principle ensures that outcomes obtained through our estimates are more than just numbers on a page. It means that business, government and the wider community can understand the analysis. This helps them to engage with us in an informed conversation about the tax and superannuation systems. An outcome is explained if it answers the 'why' questions. It identifies the contributing drivers of a gap. It also acknowledges the caveats and limitations of our estimate.
We engage our advisory group to achieve reliable and credible outcome principles of the tax gap program. The meaningful principle is assessed internally to ensure the reliable and credible outcomes are given appropriate context. This ensures the information is meaningful for the intended audience.