For the 2022-23 year we estimate a net gap of 3.9% or $812 million. In other words, we estimate that more than 96% of the 2022-23 theoretical fuel excise has been collected.
This gap forms part of our overall tax performance program. Find out more about the concept of tax gaps and the latest gaps available.
Over the period from 2017–18 to 2022–23, the estimated net fuel excise tax gap has ranged between 1.3% and 3.9%.
As noted in the limitation section, the method is dependant upon a number of factors that can lead to changes in the estimate, but do not reflect changes in the underlying compliance. This year's gap estimate is within the margins of variation we expect from this model.
Table 1 shows 2017–18 to 2022–23 data for the:
- excise and duty reported
- amendments
- gross and net fuel excise gap estimates.
Element | 2017–18 | 2018–19 | 2019–20 | 2020–21 | 2021–22 | 2022-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross gap ($m) | 251 | 266 | 618 | 492 | 233 | 812 |
Amendments ($m) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net gap ($m) | 250 | 266 | 618 | 492 | 233 | 812 |
Excise and duty reported ($m) | 18,715 | 18,769 | 18,705 | 19,461 | 17,372 | 19,846 |
Theoretical liability ($m) | 18,966 | 19,035 | 19,322 | 19,952 | 17,605 | 20,658 |
Gross gap (%) | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.9% |
Net gap (%) | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.9% |
Figure 1: Net fuel excise tax gap as a percentage of total theoretical liability, 2017–18 to 2022–23