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How we make sure the tax gap estimate is reliable.

Published 30 October 2023

We seek feedback and advice about how we estimate the gap from our external and internal subject matter experts. Based on the advice, the reliability for this estimate is high with a score of 21.

The methodological validity of the approach is also assessed as high. The level of data and information held on the high wealth population is extensive and the population coverage informing the estimates is also high.

The gap estimates remain sensitive to assumptions made, particularly relating to non-detection.

Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high – high wealth income tax gap

Figure 3 depicts a graphical representation of the reliability rating for the current medium business tax gap estimate. The rating scale includes:
- Very low which is a score between 0 and 10
- Low which is a score between 11 and 15
- Medium which is a score between 16 and 20
- High which is a score between 21 and 25
- Very high which is a score between 26 and 30.
The graph shows the high wealth income tax gap estimate has a rating of 21, which is high.