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Reliability of the PAYG withholding tax gap

How we make sure the pay as you go (PAYG) withholding tax gap estimate is reliable.

Published 3 November 2025

We seek feedback and advice about how we estimate the gap from our external and internal subject matter experts. Based on the advice, the reliability rating for this estimate is medium with a score of 16.

The estimate draws on the results from the random enquiry program, acknowledging this is the second year of applying a bottom-up approach methodology to inform gap estimate results and is subject to further enhancements.

Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high – PAYG withholding gap

The latest PAYG withholding gap estimates have a rating of 16 which is medium.  The rating scale includes very low (1-10), low (11-15), medium (16-20), high (21-25), very high (26-30).

 

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