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How we make sure the tax gap estimate is reliable.

Published 30 October 2023

We seek feedback and advice about how we estimate the gap from our external and internal subject matter experts. Based on the advice, the reliability rating for this estimate is high with a score of 22.

Our gap estimates remain sensitive to assumptions made, particularly regarding non-detection and the imputed result of compliance activities not undertaken.

While the estimates are sensitive to these assumptions, our confidence in the underlying data and population coverage informing the estimates is high. Our integration of tax assured data has significantly improved the accuracy of our estimate.

Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high – large corporate groups income tax gap

This image is a graph that represents the reliability rating for the current large corporate groups tax gap estimate. The rating scale includes:
Very low which is a score between 0 and 10.
Low which is a score between 11 and 15.
Medium which is a score between 16 and 20.
High which is a score between 21 and 25.
Very high which is a score between 26 and 30.
The graph shows the LCG gap estimate has a rating of 22 which is high.