For the 2020–21 year we estimate a net gap of 2.4% or $475 million. In other words, we estimate that more than 97% of the fuel excise was paid.
This gap forms part of our overall tax performance program. Find out more about the concept of tax gaps and the latest gaps available.
Over the period from 2015–16 to 2020–21, the estimated net fuel excise tax gap has fluctuated between 1.3% and 3.2%.
The gap has historically been very low. At such low levels, we consider year-to-year volatility as statistical variation instead of signalling any underlying changes in compliance. At 2.4%, the estimate is within our confidence interval.
Table 1 shows 2015–16 to 2020–21 data for the:
- excise and duty reported
- amendments
- gross and net fuel excise gap estimates.
Element |
2015–16 |
2016–17 |
2017–18 |
2018–19 |
2019–20 |
2020–21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross gap ($m) |
492 |
444 |
251 |
266 |
618 |
475 |
Amendments ($m) |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Net gap ($m) |
492 |
444 |
250 |
266 |
618 |
475 |
Excise and duty reported ($m) |
16,963 |
17,537 |
18,716 |
18,769 |
18,705 |
19,460 |
Theoretical liability ($m) |
17,454 |
17,982 |
18,966 |
19,035 |
19,322 |
19,936 |
Gross gap (%) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
Net gap (%) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
Figure 1: Net fuel excise tax gap as a percentage of total theoretical liability, 2015–16 to 2020–21