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Reliability of the super guarantee gap estimate

How we make sure the super guarantee gap estimate is reliable.

Published 3 November 2025

We seek feedback and advice about how we estimate the gap from our external and internal subject matter experts. Based on the advice, the reliability rating for this estimate is medium with a score of 16.

The estimate draws on the results from the random enquiry program (REP), acknowledging this is the second year of applying a bottom-up approach methodology to inform gap estimate results and may be subject to further enhancements. Unless refreshed periodically, REP outcomes can become less relevant for future year estimates which can reduce their reliability unless alternative data or method (or both) is used.

Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high – superannuation guarantee gap

The latest Superannuation Guarantee gap estimate is rated medium at 16. The rating scale is from very low (1-10), low (11-15), medium (16-20), high (21-25) to very high (26-30). 

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