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Reliability of the wine equalisation tax gap estimate

How we make sure the wine equalisation tax (WET) gap estimate is reliable.

Last updated 28 October 2026

We sought feedback and advice from external experts on the WET gap on the appropriateness and robustness of our new estimation method based on a multi-stage regression approach. Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression better fits the data and enables us to use a richer dataset, improving the reliability of the estimates. They have supported our revised reliability rating of medium with a score of 18.

Figure 3: Reliability rating scale from very low to very high WET gap

The reliability rating is medium at 18 for the current WET gap estimate. The rating scale includes very low (1–10), low (11–15), medium (16–20), high (21–25) and very high (26–30).

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