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  • Annual tax gap refresh findings

    We update our tax gap estimates in October each year. This year, we have released a further five gap estimates for the first time:

    • medium business income tax gap
    • fringe benefits tax gap
    • alcohol tax gap
    • luxury car tax gap
    • product stewardship for oil gap.

    The tax gap can be viewed from two perspectives:

    • the gross gap – this is the gap before the impact of our engagement
    • the net gap – shows the final uncollected amount after the impacts of our action.

    Our latest gross and net gap estimates (both as a dollar value and percentage) for the transaction-based tax gaps are shown in Table 1. We also show the tax reported and current reliability assessment for each estimate. While all gaps have estimates for the 2017–18 financial year some have an additional year estimate up to the 2018–19 financial year.

    Table 1: Transaction-based taxes, latest available data

    Tax gap estimate

    Reliability assessment

    Financial year

    Gross gap ($m)

    Net gap
    ($m)

    Gross gap (%)

    Net gap
    (%)

    Goods and services tax

    Medium

    2018–19

    8,393

    5,776

    11.8

    8.1

    Luxury car tax

    Medium

    2017–18

    80

    58

    10.7

    7.8

    Wine equalisation tax

    Medium

    2017–18

    31

    27

    3.6

    3.1

    Alcohol tax

    Medium

    2017–18

    599

    596

    9.6

    9.6

    Tobacco tax

    Medium

    2018–19

    1,532

    822

    11.2

    6.0

    Fuel excise

    Medium

    2018–19

    90

    90

    0.5

    0.5

    Our latest net gap estimates (both as a dollar value and percentage) for the income-based taxes are shown in Table 2. We also show the tax reported and current reliability assessment for each gap estimate.

    Table 2: Income-based taxes, latest available data

    Tax gap estimate

    Reliability assessment

    Financial year

    Gross gap ($m)

    Net gap
    ($m)

    Gross gap (%)

    Net gap
    (%)

    Large corporate groups income tax

    High

    2017–18

    4,137

    2,034

    7.5

    3.7

    Petroleum resource rent tax

    Very high

    2017–18

    n/a

    21

    n/a

    1.7

    High wealth income tax

    High

    2017–18

    949

    808

    8.6

    7.4

    Medium business income tax

    Medium

    2017–18

    1,047

    860

    7.6

    6.2

    Small business income tax

    Medium

    2017–18

    12,016

    11,080

    12.4

    11.5

    Fringe benefits tax

    Medium

    2017-18

    1,058

    1,035

    21.7

    21.2

    Individuals not in business income tax

    High

    2017–18

    9,102

    8,332

    6.1

    5.6

    Large super funds income tax

    High

    2017–18

    186

    149

    1.5

    1.2

    Small super funds income tax

    Low

    2017–18

    53

    41

    3.2

    2.5

    The administered programs summary is for programs administered by us on behalf of the community. These differ from the categories above in that they are not taxes.

    Table 3 shows the gross and net gap (both as a dollar value and percentage) for each of our gap estimates for selected administered programs, for the latest year of available data.

    Table 3: Administered programs, latest available data

    Gap estimate 

    Reliability assessment

    Financial year

    Gross gap ($m)

    Net gap
    ($m)

    Gros gap (%)

    Net gap
    (%)

    Fuel tax credits

    Medium

    2018–19

    -47

    −7

    -0.7

    −0.1

    PAYG withholding

    Low

    2017–18

    6,466

    3,484

    3.3

    1.8

    Product stewardship for oil

    High

    2018–19

    n/a

    1

    n/a

    1.0

    Superannuation guarantee

    Medium

    2017–18

    3,160

    2,440

    5.1

    4.0

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      Last modified: 19 Oct 2020QC 53161